Nonparametric modeling and forecasting electricity demand: an empirical study

This paper uses half-hourly electricity demand data in South Australia as an empirical study of nonparametric modeling and forecasting methods for prediction from half-hour ahead to one year ahead. A notable feature of the univariate time series of electricity demand is the presence of both intraweek and intraday seasonalities. An intraday seasonal cycle is apparent from the similarity of the demand from one day to the next, and an intraweek seasonal cycle is evident from comparing the demand on the corresponding day of adjacent weeks. There is a strong appeal in using forecasting methods that are able to capture both seasonalities. In this paper, the forecasting methods slice a seasonal univariate time series into a time series of curves. The forecasting methods reduce the dimensionality by applying functional principal component analysis to the observed data, and then utilize an univariate time series forecasting method and functional principal component regression techniques. When data points in the most recent curve are sequentially observed, updating methods can improve the point and interval forecast accuracy. We also revisit a nonparametric approach to construct prediction intervals of updated forecasts, and evaluate the interval forecast accuracy.Functional principal component analysis; functional time series; multivariate time series, ordinary least squares, penalized least squares; ridge regression; seasonal time series

Analytical Potential Energy Function for the Ground State X^{1} Sigma^+ of LaCl

The equilibrium geometry, harmonic frequency and dissociation energy of lanthanum monochloride have been calculated at B3LYP, MP2, QCISD(T) levels with energy-consistent relativistic effective core potentials. The possible electronic state and reasonable dissociation limit for the ground state are determined based on atomic and molecular reaction statics. Potential energy curve scans for the ground state X^{1} Sigma^+ have been carried out with B3LYP and QCISD(T) methods due to their better performance in bond energy calculations. We find the potential energy calculated with QCISD(T) method is about 0.5 eV larger than dissociation energy when the diatomic distance is as large as 0.8 nm. The problem that single-reference ab initio methods don't meet dissociation limit during calculations of lanthanide heavy-metal elements is analyzed. We propose the calculation scheme to derive analytical Murrell-Sorbie potential energy function and Dunham expansion at equilibrium position. Spectroscopic constants got by standard Dunham treatment are in good agreement with results of rotational analyses on spectroscopic experiments. The analytical function is of much realistic importance since it is possible to be applied to predict fine transitional structure and study reaction dynamic process.Comment: 10 pages, 1 figure, 3 table